Treasury Yields Fall

Published July 17, 2026

U.S. Treasury yields dipped midweek as investors reacted to the latest release of monthly producer prices showing signs of inflation cooling. Yields continued to decline later in the week after jobless claims fell to the lowest levels seen in 10 weeks.

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s producer price index (PPI), which measures the average change over time in the prices of wholesale goods and services. The June PPI fell 0.3%, outperforming economists’ estimates that the cost measure would remain unchanged. Year-over-year, the increase in wholesale prices reached 5.5%.

“The Fed’s war with inflation is not over by any means,” said chief economist at FWDBONDS, Chris Rupkey. “[B]ut there is good news from the front and the odds of Fed rate hikes should continue to recede as inflation at the factory level is trending lower, and producers will not be passing on their higher costs to the consumer level as much as we previously thought.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of July 13 at 4.56% and traded as low as 4.52% on Tuesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 5.06% and traded as low as 5.04% on Tuesday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial unemployment claims totaled 208,000 for the week ending July 11. This was down 8,000 from the prior week’s revised level and below analysts’ expectations of 217,000. Continuing unemployment claims decreased by 16,000 to 1.81 million.

"While hiring has weakened from a strong start to 2026, the labor market remains stable," said senior economist at PNC Financial, Kurt Rankin. "Businesses themselves continue to enjoy solid consumer demand, requiring that they at least maintain existing staffing to meet demand."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 7/13 at 4.55%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 5.07%.